All case opening odds are fully transparent: the percentages below are published directly by the game server and are exactly what the in-game roll uses. Rolls use unbiased cryptographic randomness (crypto.randomInt) — outcomes cannot be predetermined.
How the drop system works
Playing earns you regular surprise drop chances (on average roughly every 30 minutes).
At most 5 surprise drops per week (resets Wednesday 01:00 UTC, same as CS2).
Half of the drops are the case itself, half are a skin from inside a case.
Your first level-up of the week grants a guaranteed item.
Pink-tier and above items are announced to the whole server when found.